(Long) Percy, Pettigrew and Polyjuice Potion

[SMJ]

It's not very often that I pay attention to theories, but I saw this post
by SuperWizard624 on CoSForums.com and have to share it!

It's the most brilliant theory I've ever read. :-)

Warning: I didn't come up with this theory, but I would definitely like to
see it discussed in this newsgroup.

**

I believe we saw more of Wormtail than we thought in Order of the Phoenix,
and his role in Half-Blood Prince is going to be an important one. Two
mysteries- the whereabouts of Wormtail, and Percy's recent behavior- might
be revealed to be the answers to each other.

Clues:
In CoS, chapter 12, Malfoy mistakenly refers to Percy as "Peter Weasley."
He also states he thinks Percy's trying to catch the Heir of Slytherin
"single-handed." Wormtail became single-handed in GoF.

In OotP, chapter 23, the twins on Christmas morning were explaining how
they tried to comfort Molly, because Percy hadn't come to see how Mr.
Weasley was doing in the hospital. Fred says they told her "Percy's nothing
more than a humongous pile of rat droppings."

I realize that JKR has confirmed Percy’s acting of his own accord, but if
this theory is correct and Wormtail has been doing some im-Percy-nating,
JKR would not have been referring to the "Percy" we saw throughout OotP.
She would be referring to the Percy who is locked up somewhere, desperately
trying to get word to his family.

Before anyone reacts badly to this (I know how much everyone has grown to
love hating Percy) try to remember how you felt the first time you read
Order of the Phoenix. Percy’s behavior was shocking to us, and we jumped to
the conclusion that he must be under the Imperius Curse. Later when we
found out he wasn’t we felt we had to accept the fact that Percy had given
in to his power-hungry side. His pompous and self-important personality
seemed magnified by the actions we saw in OotP. Don’t accept this yet!

Examine the changes in Percy’s behavior, such as his new tendency to never
look anyone in the eye. Pay close attention to his mannerism’s in OotP,
especially chapter 27. Here we find him displaying excitement and hearty
laughter, traits that we rarely- if ever- see in the normally dignified,
above-everyone-else former Head Boy. Perhaps one of the most telling clues
is the way he is taking notes; he is writing so quickly that his nose is
splattered with ink. The page must be a mess of ink splatters, not nearly
neat enough for perfect Percy.

Our first glimpse of Percy in this chapter may have more insight than any
other clue. "... the bespectacled form of Percy Weasley hovered excitedly
beside the wall..."

Not Percy Weasley, but the form of Percy Weasley. In a situation as
important as the scene in Dumbledore’s office, Percy would normally try to
acquire a position at the center of the meeting, to draw importance to
himself. Yet here we see him hanging back near the wall.

Percy sent back his Christmas Sweater without a note. (Again, OotP chapter
23.) Wormtail couldn’t have attached note or written to the family at all,
because it wouldn’t have been Percy’s handwriting. He couldn’t force Percy
to write for him, because we know Percy’s not under the Imperius Curse.

Percy did write a letter to Ron; Ron recognized the handwriting.(OotP,
chapter 14) He coded it just as Harry coded his letter to Sirius earlier in
the chapter. JKR has a way of teaching us an idea first in a simple way,
then using it later to see if we can spot it. She’s done it with the
Polyjuice Potion and the Animagus ability, using each in increasingly more
complex situations. A letter as complex as Percy’s couldn’t be decoded by
Ron; it was meant for Hermione. She may have even managed some of it on the
first reading, before Ron threw it into the fire; her reaction to the
letter is oddly different than Ron and Harry’s.

Two clues (though there are many more) in the letter are relevant here: A
confirmation by Percy that Wormtail did try to keep him under the Imperius
Curse but failed, and a hint at the location he’s being held.

Letter clues:

"(...Perhaps that will open their eyes to the kind of petty criminals with
whom they are currently rubbing shoulders.) I count myself lucky to have
escaped the stigma of association with such people..."

If you don’t know what a stigma is, you’ve missed an important clue. A
stigma is a mark or scar. Doesn’t that make you think of Harry? How did he
get his scar? A curse. Petty criminals/ rubbing shoulders are references to
Pettigrew/Scabbers. Notice in the placement of Scabbers in the photo of the
Weasley’s in Egypt.( PoA chapter 1)

"...if you look at the Daily Prophet tomorrow you will get a good idea of
the way the wind is blowing -- and see if you can spot yours truly!"

This contains references to direction and finding Percy. We can’t "spot"
him, the article’s picture is of Umbridge. But we can browse through the
article to find a location, and only one is mentioned- giving us the
location of where the interviews took place, the real Percy’s location and
how he managed to hear about the article. Remember when Draco told
Polyjuice Crabbe and Polyjuice Goyle (Ron and Harry, Cos chapter 12) about
the Malfoy’s secret chamber below the drawing room floor?

This theory allows Wormtail to stay hidden and be useful. Even when Fudge
gets thrown out of office, "Percy" will still have a job at the Ministry,
keeping an eye on everything that’s happening there. Isn't it strange that
after Percy messed up so badly with the Crouch situation that he still
managed to get a huge promotion? Aurthur was right to be suspicious- but if
Fudge had wanted to use Percy as a spy, he would have told Percy to stay at
home!

So how did "Percy" get the job? Perhaps someone close to the minister gave
him a good recomendation- Lucius was in the perfect position to make sure
Fake-Percy got the job.

Though Pettigrew is a bumbling fool, he has shown instances of great power,
talent, and cunning. He has shown his ability to deceive even his closest
friends, and Voldemort himself admitted his surprise at Wormtail’s
"presence of mind." (GoF, chapter 33) Wormtail has proven himself an expert
at disguise, and it was he who helped Barty Jr. to make the Polyjuice
Potion before kidnapping Moody.(GoF chapter 35)


Is Percy going to die, or will he escape or be rescued? Will Lupin shake
"Percy's" hand with bad results? How are the Weasley's going to react in
the end? Is Hermione really clever enough to figure it out?

**

I’m posting here a copy of my attempt to decode Percy’s letter, for those
who want more insight into this theory. Thank you all for your interest!

I feel I should mention that I did not decode this letter by making random
guesses. I followed what JKR has taught us to do- I used instructions she
left in the story. Throughout the series, she points out the kind of clues
she uses. Examples:

Literary clues: We know to look for literary clues because they helped
Hermione figure out that Rita was an Animagus. (bugging)

Reading between the lines: This is a technique in which we take a step back
and look past the obvious to see the important information that was not
meant to intentionally be made known. Hermione also uses this technique
after Umbridge’s speech after the Sorting Hat’s Song. She sees what Ron and
Harry missed: The ministry is going to be interfering at Hogwarts.

Deductive reasoning: This technique allows us to come to a conclusion by
process of elimination. Ginny demonstrates this by proving to Harry that
Voldemort can’t have possessed him.

Inside information: Harry uses this technique in his coded letter to
Sirius. It demonstrates how two people can communicate openly by referring
to things only they understand. An outsider would see it completely
differently. (Harry’s letter is important here: JKR dedicates an entire
page to teaching us how to read and write a coded letter.)

Keywords* (or "running bits"): *This technique was not (or has not yet
been) revealed in the story itself, unless I missed it, but the presence of
this technique in JKR’s writing is undeniable. The technique involves using
a word that is repeated whenever there is relating bits of information
found in the text. Finding all the related information offers a hint at its
relevance.

The translations I have written below are only rough conclusions of what I
think Percy was trying to get across. To explain how I came to each
conclusion might take pages of this thread, but using the guide I have
listed above, I’m sure you’ll be able to see the connections.

Percy was only able to send a letter because Hermes took a letter to him
that was meant as a reply to his impersonator. The person who sent it is
revealed in his letter. The letter Percy received gave him lots of
information about the ministry. The rest of Percy’s information comes from
what the Death Eaters have told him and what he’s overheard.


Dear Ron,

I have only just heard (from no less a person than the Minister of Magic
himself, who has it from your new teacher, Professor Umbridge) that you
have become a Hogwarts prefect.
-(Fudge sent the return letter to Percy.)


I was most pleasantly surprised when I heard this news
- I was surprised but happy when Hermes showed up.

and must firstly offer my congratulations.
-same old Percy, just being formal

I must admit that I have always been afraid that you would take what we
might call the "Fred and George" route, rather than following in my
footsteps, so you can imagine my feelings on hearing you have stopped
flouting authority and have decided to shoulder some real responsibility.
-I didn’t think you’d be in any danger, but now that Dumbledore’s made you
a prefect the ministry’s going to be very suspicious of you. You can
imagine I’m feeling concerned for your safety.
-Keyword: afraid- "Fred and George" route (CoS, the twins take Ron to
rescue Harry from his imprisonment at the Dursley’s)

But I want to give you more than congratulations, Ron, I want to give you
some advice,
-There is more to this message than it first appears, I want to give you
information


which is why I am sending this at night rather than by the usual morning
post.
-(an excuse for the reason the letter arrives at night in case it is
intercepted by those who are watching the mail in and out of Hogwarts)


Hopefully you will be able to read this away from prying eyes and avoid
awkward questions.
-Do not let the wrong people see this letter!

From something the Minister let slip when telling me you are now a prefect,
-In the Minister’s letter that Hermes "accidentally" delivered to me
instead of my impersonator...

I gather that you are still seeing a lot of Harry Potter. I must tell you,
Ron, that nothing could put you in danger of losing your badge more than
continued fraternization with that boy.
-It appears the ministry is taking an interest in the loyalties of the
students, especially those who are close to Dumbledore and Harry. (Ron
represents both, as a prefect and a friend of Harry’s. This warns about the
ministry’s fear that Dumbledore is training an army to use against Fudge)

Yes, I am sure you are surprised to hear this –
-(no code necessary)

no doubt you will say that Potter has always been Dumbledore's favorite –
-(Keyword: Dumbledore- "favorite")

but I feel bound
-I am bound (Shackled, chained up, or bound by an anti-apparation jinx)

to tell you that Dumbledore may not be in charge at Hogwarts much longer
and the people who count have a very different -- and probably more
accurate -- view of Potter's behavior.
-The ministry plans to force Dumbledore out. Fudge has his suspicions that
there are people in the ministry who believe what Dumbledore is saying.
-(Keyword: Dumbledore-"people who count" –instruction to count people;
Percy names ten people in this letter)

I shall say no more here, but if you look at the Daily Prophet tomorrow you
will get a good idea of the way the wind is blowing -- and see if you can
spot yours truly!
-You can find my location by looking in the Daily Prophet article tomorrow
-("the way the wind is blowing" is a reference to direction. to "spot"
someone is to try and find them.
-(Note: the article does not show a picture of Percy, so one cannot
actually "spot" him, but one can browse through the article itself to look
for a location. Only one is mentioned: the Malfoy’s Wiltshire mansion. Also
note that in CoS chapter 12, Draco mentioned that his family had their own
secret chamber, under the drawing room floor. This gives us Percy’s
location, the location the interviews took place, and how Percy knew about
the article.)


Seriously, Ron, you do not want to be tarred with the same brush as Potter,
it could be very damaging to your future prospects, and I am talking here
about life after school too.
- Constant vigilance! Associating with Harry could put your life in danger!
Here’s why...

As you must be aware, given that our father escorted him to court, Potter
had a disciplinary hearing this summer in front of the whole Wizengamot and
he did not come out of it looking too good. He got off on a mere
technicality if you ask me and many of the people I've spoken to remain
convinced of his guilt.
-The only people I’ve actually spoken to since my imprisonment are Death
Eaters- and they seem to think the order for the dementor’s attack on Harry
did not come from You-Know-Who! Someone in the Ministry tried to take Harry
out, and at least succeeded at making him look bad.
-(Percy was right about this! It was Umbridge!)

It may be that you are afraid to sever ties with Potter – I know that he
can be unbalanced and, for all I know, violent –
-You might be afraid to leave Harry to defend for himself, but when he’s
put in danger, he can be quite threat himself.
-Keyword: afraid – sever ties (reference to being bound, need to be freed)

but if you have any worries about this, or have spotted anything else in
Potter's behavior that is troubling you, I urge you to speak to Dolores
Umbridge, a really delightful woman, who I know will be only too happy to
advise you.
-If you are still worried about Harry, or you find that Umbridge has been
mistreating him, the best way to help Harry might be to cozy up to
Umbridge.
-(Note: I think Percy’s description of Umbridge is amusing, compare it to
Harry’s description of her in his coded letter to Sirius.)

This leads me to my other bit of advice.
-This is how you can help this situation.


As I have hinted above, Dumbledore's regime at Hogwarts may soon be over.
-Dumbledore won’t be at Hogwarts much longer, but there’s something you can
do...
-(Keyword: Dumbledore-"As I have hinted above" – this is the key to the
keyword used in the letter. This makes the reader go back to the previous
mentions of the name Dumbledore and clarifies that his name acts as a hint.
It leads us to look for other keywords.)

Your loyalty, Ron, should be not to him, but to the school and the
Ministry.
-You can help Dumbledore out by keeping your loyalties to the school, but
also pretending that you are loyal to the ministry. In doing so you can
help to keep Dumbledore informed about what Umbridge is up to!

I am very sorry to hear that so far Professor Umbridge is encountering very
little cooperation from staff as she strives to make those necessary
changes within Hogwarts that the Ministry so ardently desires (although she
should find this easier from next week -- again, see the Prophet
tomorrow!).
-Umbridge is having trouble trying to make the changes the ministry wants
at Hogwarts. The Ministry is even about to take some drastic measures.
They’re getting desperate! Umbridge is desperately seeking help. Be the one
to help her, and she may let you in on some inside information.


I shall say only this -- a student who shows himself willing to help
Professor Um-
bridge now may be very well placed for Head Boyship in a couple of years!
-Pretending to help Umbridge will give you a lot of valuable information
that Dumbledore can use. He’ll remember that when it comes time to choose a
Head Boy!


I am sorry that I was unable to see more of you over the summer.
-In other words, you did not see me over the summer.

It pains me to criticize our parents,
-I would not criticize our parents.

but I am afraid I can no longer live under their roof
-Keyword: afraid – no longer live under their roof (taken from home,
kidnapped)

while they remain mixed up with the dangerous crowd around Dumbledore
- (Keyword: Dumbledore- "dangerous crowd")

(if you are writing to Mother at any point, you might tell her that a
certain Sturgis Podmore, who is a great friend of Dumbledore's, has
recently been sent to Azkaban for trespass at the Ministry. Perhaps that
will open their eyes
-I offer this proof that I have not turned against our family. I know what
has happened to Sturgis Podmore- the ministry will surely be trying to keep
this information from Dumbledore’s associates. Please make sure they are
informed. (Make note that the article in the Daily Prophet was only one
inch by one inch, and Percy had no way to know about it.)
-(Keyword: Dumbledore- "Azkaban")

to the kind of petty criminals with whom they are currently rubbing
shoulders). I count myself very lucky to have escaped the stigma of
association with such people
-I escaped the curse Pettigrew put on me.
-( Petty criminals/ rubbing shoulders = Pettigrew/Scabbers. Scabbers used
to ride around on Ron’s shoulder, as depicted in the photo of the Weasleys
in Egypt in PoA.)
- Stigma: a mark or scar. This makes us immediately think of Harry, who got
his scar from a curse.

--the Minister really could not be more gracious to me --
-The minister has never talked to me.

and I do hope, Ron, that you will not allow family ties to blind you to the
misguided nature of our parents' beliefs and actions either.
-Don’t believe what you see just because everyone else does.


I sincerely hope that, in time, they will realize how mistaken they were
and I
shall, of course, be ready to accept a full apology when that day comes.
-(No code necessary.)

Please think over what I have said most carefully, particularly the bit
about Harry Potter,
-This letter is written in code. Think about it carefully. The parts about
Harry are really important.

and congratulations again on becoming prefect.
-(no coding again)

Your brother,
Percy


"Dumbledore" keyword:
favorite
people who count
dangerous crowd
Azkaban

Percy is trying to warn Dumbledore about ten people, favorites of
Voldemort, a dangerous crowd, in Azkaban. Percy knew about the breakout of
Voldemort’s most loyal servants months in advance.


"Afraid" keyword:
"Fred and George" route (CoS - the Twins take Ron to rescue Harry from his
imprisonment at the Dursleys)
sever ties (need to be freed)
no longer live under their roof (taken from home)

It’s pretty obvious when you put these together. Percy’s been kidnapped and
is being held prisoner.

This letter took weeks to figure out completely! There is an order in which
we are supposed to figure out the clues. Percy starts our search with the
Dumbledore Keyword- "As I have hinted above..." This makes us find the
first keyword and makes us look for more keywords. We find the second and
realize Percy is a prisoner. That gives us the proper perspective from
which to see the rest of the letter.

Percy had a good idea of what was going on during OotP. He knew someone at
the Ministry had sent the dementors after Harry, he suspected Umbridge and
knew she would give Harry a rough time at Hogwarts, he tried to warn
Dumbledore about the Azkaban breakout. He tried to give Ron a way to
protect himself and help Dumbledore. He tried to convey what happened to
him, where he was and how he managed the letter.

Yes, Percy is acting of his own accord! In my opinion, considering what
he’s going through, his actions show true Gryffindor spirit.

**

There's much more discussion at http://www.cosforums.com/showthread.php?t=
41938 , but this theory makes me very happy. :)




--
SMJ
http://snurl.com/bs45

[Kish]

Post by SMJ
It's not very often that I pay attention to theories, but I saw this post
by SuperWizard624 on CoSForums.com and have to share it!
It's the most brilliant theory I've ever read. :-)

I think Percy would put something a little more obvious in his letter if
that theory was true. It's quite a coincidence, isn't it, if he sends a
letter which, at least on the surface, looks just like what his
impersonator would say? And a happy coincidence for Voldemort, and a
big mistake for Percy. He should have--and, I suspect, /would/
have--just written, "Help, I am a prisoner in the Malfoys' secret room!"
and sent it off.

No, I prefer Dark Magic's theory about Percy being a spy for
Dumbledore--and I'm pretty confident neither will prove true.

[Colin McAlpine CS2001]

I THINK ALBEIT A VERY GOOD THEORY IT WOULD BE TOU MUCH TO EXPLAIN IN
WHAT IS A "CHILDRENS NOVEL"!

[t***@gmail.com]

Post by Kish

Post by SMJ
It's not very often that I pay attention to theories, but I saw this post
by SuperWizard624 on CoSForums.com and have to share it!
It's the most brilliant theory I've ever read. :-)

I think Percy would put something a little more obvious in his letter if
that theory was true. It's quite a coincidence, isn't it, if he sends a
letter which, at least on the surface, looks just like what his
impersonator would say? And a happy coincidence for Voldemort, and a
big mistake for Percy. He should have--and, I suspect, /would/
have--just written, "Help, I am a prisoner in the Malfoys' secret room!"
and sent it off.

If his owl had been intercepted, such a sentence would have gotten Percy in big trouble!

[asd]

Percy is a git!
Get over it!
He is not a hero or a spy!
He would turn in his mopther if it meant he would get paid more to do his
job and give him more power.

Percy is going to try to get the MOM job after Fudge leaves. Since he is
the MOM's right hand git.

Post by SMJ
It's not very often that I pay attention to theories, but I saw this post
by SuperWizard624 on CoSForums.com and have to share it!
It's the most brilliant theory I've ever read. :-)
Warning: I didn't come up with this theory, but I would definitely like to
see it discussed in this newsgroup.
**
I believe we saw more of Wormtail than we thought in Order of the Phoenix,
and his role in Half-Blood Prince is going to be an important one. Two
mysteries- the whereabouts of Wormtail, and Percy's recent behavior- might
be revealed to be the answers to each other.
In CoS, chapter 12, Malfoy mistakenly refers to Percy as "Peter Weasley."
He also states he thinks Percy's trying to catch the Heir of Slytherin
"single-handed." Wormtail became single-handed in GoF.
In OotP, chapter 23, the twins on Christmas morning were explaining how
they tried to comfort Molly, because Percy hadn't come to see how Mr.
Weasley was doing in the hospital. Fred says they told her "Percy's nothing
more than a humongous pile of rat droppings."
I realize that JKR has confirmed Percy's acting of his own accord, but if
this theory is correct and Wormtail has been doing some im-Percy-nating,
JKR would not have been referring to the "Percy" we saw throughout OotP.
She would be referring to the Percy who is locked up somewhere, desperately
trying to get word to his family.
Before anyone reacts badly to this (I know how much everyone has grown to
love hating Percy) try to remember how you felt the first time you read
Order of the Phoenix. Percy's behavior was shocking to us, and we jumped
to
the conclusion that he must be under the Imperius Curse. Later when we
found out he wasn't we felt we had to accept the fact that Percy had given
in to his power-hungry side. His pompous and self-important personality
seemed magnified by the actions we saw in OotP. Don't accept this yet!
Examine the changes in Percy's behavior, such as his new tendency to never
look anyone in the eye. Pay close attention to his mannerism's in OotP,
especially chapter 27. Here we find him displaying excitement and hearty
laughter, traits that we rarely- if ever- see in the normally dignified,
above-everyone-else former Head Boy. Perhaps one of the most telling clues
is the way he is taking notes; he is writing so quickly that his nose is
splattered with ink. The page must be a mess of ink splatters, not nearly
neat enough for perfect Percy.
Our first glimpse of Percy in this chapter may have more insight than any
other clue. "... the bespectacled form of Percy Weasley hovered excitedly
beside the wall..."
Not Percy Weasley, but the form of Percy Weasley. In a situation as
important as the scene in Dumbledore's office, Percy would normally try to
acquire a position at the center of the meeting, to draw importance to
himself. Yet here we see him hanging back near the wall.
Percy sent back his Christmas Sweater without a note. (Again, OotP chapter
23.) Wormtail couldn't have attached note or written to the family at all,
because it wouldn't have been Percy's handwriting. He couldn't force Percy
to write for him, because we know Percy's not under the Imperius Curse.
Percy did write a letter to Ron; Ron recognized the handwriting.(OotP,
chapter 14) He coded it just as Harry coded his letter to Sirius earlier in
the chapter. JKR has a way of teaching us an idea first in a simple way,
then using it later to see if we can spot it. She's done it with the
Polyjuice Potion and the Animagus ability, using each in increasingly more
complex situations. A letter as complex as Percy's couldn't be decoded by
Ron; it was meant for Hermione. She may have even managed some of it on the
first reading, before Ron threw it into the fire; her reaction to the
letter is oddly different than Ron and Harry's.
Two clues (though there are many more) in the letter are relevant here: A
confirmation by Percy that Wormtail did try to keep him under the Imperius
Curse but failed, and a hint at the location he's being held.
"(...Perhaps that will open their eyes to the kind of petty criminals with
whom they are currently rubbing shoulders.) I count myself lucky to have
escaped the stigma of association with such people..."
If you don't know what a stigma is, you've missed an important clue. A
stigma is a mark or scar. Doesn't that make you think of Harry? How did he
get his scar? A curse. Petty criminals/ rubbing shoulders are references to
Pettigrew/Scabbers. Notice in the placement of Scabbers in the photo of the
Weasley's in Egypt.( PoA chapter 1)
"...if you look at the Daily Prophet tomorrow you will get a good idea of
the way the wind is blowing -- and see if you can spot yours truly!"
This contains references to direction and finding Percy. We can't "spot"
him, the article's picture is of Umbridge. But we can browse through the
article to find a location, and only one is mentioned- giving us the
location of where the interviews took place, the real Percy's location and
how he managed to hear about the article. Remember when Draco told
Polyjuice Crabbe and Polyjuice Goyle (Ron and Harry, Cos chapter 12) about
the Malfoy's secret chamber below the drawing room floor?
This theory allows Wormtail to stay hidden and be useful. Even when Fudge
gets thrown out of office, "Percy" will still have a job at the Ministry,
keeping an eye on everything that's happening there. Isn't it strange that
after Percy messed up so badly with the Crouch situation that he still
managed to get a huge promotion? Aurthur was right to be suspicious- but if
Fudge had wanted to use Percy as a spy, he would have told Percy to stay at
home!
So how did "Percy" get the job? Perhaps someone close to the minister gave
him a good recomendation- Lucius was in the perfect position to make sure
Fake-Percy got the job.
Though Pettigrew is a bumbling fool, he has shown instances of great power,
talent, and cunning. He has shown his ability to deceive even his closest
friends, and Voldemort himself admitted his surprise at Wormtail's
"presence of mind." (GoF, chapter 33) Wormtail has proven himself an expert
at disguise, and it was he who helped Barty Jr. to make the Polyjuice
Potion before kidnapping Moody.(GoF chapter 35)
Is Percy going to die, or will he escape or be rescued? Will Lupin shake
"Percy's" hand with bad results? How are the Weasley's going to react in
the end? Is Hermione really clever enough to figure it out?
**
I'm posting here a copy of my attempt to decode Percy's letter, for those
who want more insight into this theory. Thank you all for your interest!
I feel I should mention that I did not decode this letter by making random
guesses. I followed what JKR has taught us to do- I used instructions she
left in the story. Throughout the series, she points out the kind of clues
Literary clues: We know to look for literary clues because they helped
Hermione figure out that Rita was an Animagus. (bugging)
Reading between the lines: This is a technique in which we take a step back
and look past the obvious to see the important information that was not
meant to intentionally be made known. Hermione also uses this technique
after Umbridge's speech after the Sorting Hat's Song. She sees what Ron
and
Harry missed: The ministry is going to be interfering at Hogwarts.
Deductive reasoning: This technique allows us to come to a conclusion by
process of elimination. Ginny demonstrates this by proving to Harry that
Voldemort can't have possessed him.
Inside information: Harry uses this technique in his coded letter to
Sirius. It demonstrates how two people can communicate openly by referring
to things only they understand. An outsider would see it completely
differently. (Harry's letter is important here: JKR dedicates an entire
page to teaching us how to read and write a coded letter.)
Keywords* (or "running bits"): *This technique was not (or has not yet
been) revealed in the story itself, unless I missed it, but the presence of
this technique in JKR's writing is undeniable. The technique involves
using
a word that is repeated whenever there is relating bits of information
found in the text. Finding all the related information offers a hint at its
relevance.
The translations I have written below are only rough conclusions of what I
think Percy was trying to get across. To explain how I came to each
conclusion might take pages of this thread, but using the guide I have
listed above, I'm sure you'll be able to see the connections.
Percy was only able to send a letter because Hermes took a letter to him
that was meant as a reply to his impersonator. The person who sent it is
revealed in his letter. The letter Percy received gave him lots of
information about the ministry. The rest of Percy's information comes from
what the Death Eaters have told him and what he's overheard.
Dear Ron,
I have only just heard (from no less a person than the Minister of Magic
himself, who has it from your new teacher, Professor Umbridge) that you
have become a Hogwarts prefect.
-(Fudge sent the return letter to Percy.)
I was most pleasantly surprised when I heard this news
- I was surprised but happy when Hermes showed up.
and must firstly offer my congratulations.
-same old Percy, just being formal
I must admit that I have always been afraid that you would take what we
might call the "Fred and George" route, rather than following in my
footsteps, so you can imagine my feelings on hearing you have stopped
flouting authority and have decided to shoulder some real responsibility.
-I didn't think you'd be in any danger, but now that Dumbledore's made you
a prefect the ministry's going to be very suspicious of you. You can
imagine I'm feeling concerned for your safety.
-Keyword: afraid- "Fred and George" route (CoS, the twins take Ron to
rescue Harry from his imprisonment at the Dursley's)
But I want to give you more than congratulations, Ron, I want to give you
some advice,
-There is more to this message than it first appears, I want to give you
information
which is why I am sending this at night rather than by the usual morning
post.
-(an excuse for the reason the letter arrives at night in case it is
intercepted by those who are watching the mail in and out of Hogwarts)
Hopefully you will be able to read this away from prying eyes and avoid
awkward questions.
-Do not let the wrong people see this letter!
From something the Minister let slip when telling me you are now a prefect,
-In the Minister's letter that Hermes "accidentally" delivered to me
instead of my impersonator...
I gather that you are still seeing a lot of Harry Potter. I must tell you,
Ron, that nothing could put you in danger of losing your badge more than
continued fraternization with that boy.
-It appears the ministry is taking an interest in the loyalties of the
students, especially those who are close to Dumbledore and Harry. (Ron
represents both, as a prefect and a friend of Harry's. This warns about
the
ministry's fear that Dumbledore is training an army to use against Fudge)
Yes, I am sure you are surprised to hear this -
-(no code necessary)
no doubt you will say that Potter has always been Dumbledore's favorite -
-(Keyword: Dumbledore- "favorite")
but I feel bound
-I am bound (Shackled, chained up, or bound by an anti-apparation jinx)
to tell you that Dumbledore may not be in charge at Hogwarts much longer
and the people who count have a very different -- and probably more
accurate -- view of Potter's behavior.
-The ministry plans to force Dumbledore out. Fudge has his suspicions that
there are people in the ministry who believe what Dumbledore is saying.
-(Keyword: Dumbledore-"people who count" -instruction to count people;
Percy names ten people in this letter)
I shall say no more here, but if you look at the Daily Prophet tomorrow you
will get a good idea of the way the wind is blowing -- and see if you can
spot yours truly!
-You can find my location by looking in the Daily Prophet article tomorrow
-("the way the wind is blowing" is a reference to direction. to "spot"
someone is to try and find them.
-(Note: the article does not show a picture of Percy, so one cannot
actually "spot" him, but one can browse through the article itself to look
for a location. Only one is mentioned: the Malfoy's Wiltshire mansion.
Also
note that in CoS chapter 12, Draco mentioned that his family had their own
secret chamber, under the drawing room floor. This gives us Percy's
location, the location the interviews took place, and how Percy knew about
the article.)
Seriously, Ron, you do not want to be tarred with the same brush as Potter,
it could be very damaging to your future prospects, and I am talking here
about life after school too.
- Constant vigilance! Associating with Harry could put your life in danger!
Here's why...
As you must be aware, given that our father escorted him to court, Potter
had a disciplinary hearing this summer in front of the whole Wizengamot and
he did not come out of it looking too good. He got off on a mere
technicality if you ask me and many of the people I've spoken to remain
convinced of his guilt.
-The only people I've actually spoken to since my imprisonment are Death
Eaters- and they seem to think the order for the dementor's attack on
Harry
did not come from You-Know-Who! Someone in the Ministry tried to take Harry
out, and at least succeeded at making him look bad.
-(Percy was right about this! It was Umbridge!)
It may be that you are afraid to sever ties with Potter - I know that he
can be unbalanced and, for all I know, violent -
-You might be afraid to leave Harry to defend for himself, but when he's
put in danger, he can be quite threat himself.
-Keyword: afraid - sever ties (reference to being bound, need to be freed)
but if you have any worries about this, or have spotted anything else in
Potter's behavior that is troubling you, I urge you to speak to Dolores
Umbridge, a really delightful woman, who I know will be only too happy to
advise you.
-If you are still worried about Harry, or you find that Umbridge has been
mistreating him, the best way to help Harry might be to cozy up to
Umbridge.
-(Note: I think Percy's description of Umbridge is amusing, compare it to
Harry's description of her in his coded letter to Sirius.)
This leads me to my other bit of advice.
-This is how you can help this situation.
As I have hinted above, Dumbledore's regime at Hogwarts may soon be over.
-Dumbledore won't be at Hogwarts much longer, but there's something you
can
do...
-(Keyword: Dumbledore-"As I have hinted above" - this is the key to the
keyword used in the letter. This makes the reader go back to the previous
mentions of the name Dumbledore and clarifies that his name acts as a hint.
It leads us to look for other keywords.)
Your loyalty, Ron, should be not to him, but to the school and the
Ministry.
-You can help Dumbledore out by keeping your loyalties to the school, but
also pretending that you are loyal to the ministry. In doing so you can
help to keep Dumbledore informed about what Umbridge is up to!
I am very sorry to hear that so far Professor Umbridge is encountering very
little cooperation from staff as she strives to make those necessary
changes within Hogwarts that the Ministry so ardently desires (although she
should find this easier from next week -- again, see the Prophet
tomorrow!).
-Umbridge is having trouble trying to make the changes the ministry wants
at Hogwarts. The Ministry is even about to take some drastic measures.
They're getting desperate! Umbridge is desperately seeking help. Be the
one
to help her, and she may let you in on some inside information.
I shall say only this -- a student who shows himself willing to help
Professor Um-
bridge now may be very well placed for Head Boyship in a couple of years!
-Pretending to help Umbridge will give you a lot of valuable information
that Dumbledore can use. He'll remember that when it comes time to choose
a
Head Boy!
I am sorry that I was unable to see more of you over the summer.
-In other words, you did not see me over the summer.
It pains me to criticize our parents,
-I would not criticize our parents.
but I am afraid I can no longer live under their roof
-Keyword: afraid - no longer live under their roof (taken from home,
kidnapped)
while they remain mixed up with the dangerous crowd around Dumbledore
- (Keyword: Dumbledore- "dangerous crowd")
(if you are writing to Mother at any point, you might tell her that a
certain Sturgis Podmore, who is a great friend of Dumbledore's, has
recently been sent to Azkaban for trespass at the Ministry. Perhaps that
will open their eyes
-I offer this proof that I have not turned against our family. I know what
has happened to Sturgis Podmore- the ministry will surely be trying to keep
this information from Dumbledore's associates. Please make sure they are
informed. (Make note that the article in the Daily Prophet was only one
inch by one inch, and Percy had no way to know about it.)
-(Keyword: Dumbledore- "Azkaban")
to the kind of petty criminals with whom they are currently rubbing
shoulders). I count myself very lucky to have escaped the stigma of
association with such people
-I escaped the curse Pettigrew put on me.
-( Petty criminals/ rubbing shoulders = Pettigrew/Scabbers. Scabbers used
to ride around on Ron's shoulder, as depicted in the photo of the Weasleys
in Egypt in PoA.)
- Stigma: a mark or scar. This makes us immediately think of Harry, who got
his scar from a curse.
--the Minister really could not be more gracious to me --
-The minister has never talked to me.
and I do hope, Ron, that you will not allow family ties to blind you to the
misguided nature of our parents' beliefs and actions either.
-Don't believe what you see just because everyone else does.
I sincerely hope that, in time, they will realize how mistaken they were
and I
shall, of course, be ready to accept a full apology when that day comes.
-(No code necessary.)
Please think over what I have said most carefully, particularly the bit
about Harry Potter,
-This letter is written in code. Think about it carefully. The parts about
Harry are really important.
and congratulations again on becoming prefect.
-(no coding again)
Your brother,
Percy
favorite
people who count
dangerous crowd
Azkaban
Percy is trying to warn Dumbledore about ten people, favorites of
Voldemort, a dangerous crowd, in Azkaban. Percy knew about the breakout of
Voldemort's most loyal servants months in advance.
"Fred and George" route (CoS - the Twins take Ron to rescue Harry from his
imprisonment at the Dursleys)
sever ties (need to be freed)
no longer live under their roof (taken from home)
It's pretty obvious when you put these together. Percy's been kidnapped
and
is being held prisoner.
This letter took weeks to figure out completely! There is an order in which
we are supposed to figure out the clues. Percy starts our search with the
Dumbledore Keyword- "As I have hinted above..." This makes us find the
first keyword and makes us look for more keywords. We find the second and
realize Percy is a prisoner. That gives us the proper perspective from
which to see the rest of the letter.
Percy had a good idea of what was going on during OotP. He knew someone at
the Ministry had sent the dementors after Harry, he suspected Umbridge and
knew she would give Harry a rough time at Hogwarts, he tried to warn
Dumbledore about the Azkaban breakout. He tried to give Ron a way to
protect himself and help Dumbledore. He tried to convey what happened to
him, where he was and how he managed the letter.
Yes, Percy is acting of his own accord! In my opinion, considering what
he's going through, his actions show true Gryffindor spirit.
**
There's much more discussion at http://www.cosforums.com/showthread.php?t=
41938 , but this theory makes me very happy. :)
--
SMJ
http://snurl.com/bs45

[gjw]

Post by SMJ
It's not very often that I pay attention to theories, but I saw this post
by SuperWizard624 on CoSForums.com and have to share it!
It's the most brilliant theory I've ever read. :-)
Warning: I didn't come up with this theory, but I would definitely like to
see it discussed in this newsgroup.

<snip>

Sorry, for me it's right up there with the "Ron is Dumbledore" theory.

[Pamela Rodger]

Post by gjw

Post by SMJ
It's not very often that I pay attention to theories, but I saw this post
by SuperWizard624 on CoSForums.com and have to share it!
It's the most brilliant theory I've ever read. :-)
Warning: I didn't come up with this theory, but I would definitely like to
see it discussed in this newsgroup.

<snip>
Sorry, for me it's right up there with the "Ron is Dumbledore" theory.

Nope, for me it's a pretty good one - I've heard it before, though the
bit about the Malfoy's was an interesing addition.

I think an important clue for this one is the title of the chapter,
which draws attention to paralells between the two letters - "Padfoot
and Percy".

[Colin McAlpine CS2001]

Post by Pamela Rodger
Nope, for me it's a pretty good one - I've heard it before, though the
bit about the Malfoy's was an interesing addition.
I think an important clue for this one is the title of the chapter,
which draws attention to paralells between the two letters - "Padfoot
and Percy".

I AGREE ITS INTERESTING AND WELL THOUGHT OUT.
BUT I CAN'T SEE WHY HIM BEING IMPRISONED WOULD MAKE ANYTHING INTERESTING
IN THE STORY OTHER THAN A CONFRONTATION BETWEEN THE MALFOYS AND THE
DUMBLEDORES ARMY LOT BUSTING IN AND TRYING TO SAVE HIM FROM THEIR MANSION.

WHICH WOULD BE GOOD.... ONLY TIME WILL TELL I GUESS!!! ROLL ON JULY!

[Colin McAlpine CS2001]

Post by gjw
Sorry, for me it's right up there with the "Ron is Dumbledore" theory.

OR RIGHT DOWN THERE ( * )

[Tom A.]

Post by gjw

Post by SMJ
It's not very often that I pay attention to theories, but I saw this post
by SuperWizard624 on CoSForums.com and have to share it!
It's the most brilliant theory I've ever read. :-)
Warning: I didn't come up with this theory, but I would definitely like to
see it discussed in this newsgroup.

<snip>
Sorry, for me it's right up there with the "Ron is Dumbledore" theory.

I like the Ron is Snape theory, myself.

But the problem with the theory is occrams razor. It's much simpler to
think him either a git, a spy for the good guys, or a bad guy.
Admittedly, the author likes to fool the reader, so if it is her goal,
there are probably enough clues to support any of the conclusions.
Which leaves us in the realm of speculation.

But if Percy were being held prisoner, and had a chance to send an owl,
and thought it might get intercepted, would he expect even a coded
message to get through? Why send it to Hogwarts where he knows things
are bad (in this scenario.) Why not just send it to his home, or one of
his brothers (if he's worried that his father is being watched)?

Tom A.
We will now close the doors and assume that they will be killed. - Dr. Evil

[Jen]

Post by Tom A.

Post by gjw

Post by SMJ
It's not very often that I pay attention to theories, but I saw this post
by SuperWizard624 on CoSForums.com and have to share it!
It's the most brilliant theory I've ever read. :-)
Warning: I didn't come up with this theory, but I would definitely like
to see it discussed in this newsgroup.

<snip>
Sorry, for me it's right up there with the "Ron is Dumbledore" theory.

I like the Ron is Snape theory, myself.
But the problem with the theory is occrams razor. It's much simpler to
think him either a git, a spy for the good guys, or a bad guy. Admittedly,
the author likes to fool the reader, so if it is her goal, there are
probably enough clues to support any of the conclusions. Which leaves us
in the realm of speculation.
But if Percy were being held prisoner, and had a chance to send an owl,
and thought it might get intercepted, would he expect even a coded message
to get through? Why send it to Hogwarts where he knows things are bad (in
this scenario.) Why not just send it to his home, or one of his brothers
(if he's worried that his father is being watched)?
Tom A.
We will now close the doors and assume that they will be killed. - Dr. Evil

Occam's Razor states the simplest answer is probably the right one. However,
JKR has proven that his isn't always the case, because if it were, Snape
would have been the one after the Philosopher's stone, Malfoy would be the
heir of Slytherin, etc etc etc.
I'm not saying that Ron is Snape, but there are many other possibilities we
haven't considered.

[Colin McAlpine CS2001]

Post by Jen
Occam's Razor states the simplest answer is probably the right one. However,
JKR has proven that his isn't always the case, because if it were, Snape
would have been the one after the Philosopher's stone, Malfoy would be the
heir of Slytherin, etc etc etc.
I'm not saying that Ron is Snape, but there are many other possibilities we
haven't considered.

Why would Ron be snape!!! They are like black and white!!!! Orange and
Black even! There is no way Ron would become a Death Eater. And thats
the simplest answer I can give without going into detail about the whole
time turning shenanigans!

[Rijl Kent]

Post by Jen

Post by Tom A.

Post by gjw

Post by SMJ
It's not very often that I pay attention to theories, but I saw this post
by SuperWizard624 on CoSForums.com and have to share it!
It's the most brilliant theory I've ever read. :-)
Warning: I didn't come up with this theory, but I would definitely like
to see it discussed in this newsgroup.

<snip>
Sorry, for me it's right up there with the "Ron is Dumbledore" theory.

I like the Ron is Snape theory, myself.
But the problem with the theory is occrams razor. It's much

simpler to

Post by Jen

Post by Tom A.
think him either a git, a spy for the good guys, or a bad guy. Admittedly,
the author likes to fool the reader, so if it is her goal, there are
probably enough clues to support any of the conclusions. Which leaves us
in the realm of speculation.

<snip>

Post by Jen
Occam's Razor states the simplest answer is probably the right one. However,
JKR has proven that his isn't always the case, because if it were, Snape
would have been the one after the Philosopher's stone, Malfoy would be the
heir of Slytherin, etc etc etc.

<snip>

That's a good point about Occam's Razor and JKR--also keep in mind that
the simplest answer is the best not because there's any way to know _a
priori_ the complexity in any given case, but IF you assume the answer
is simplest THEN you can more easily test your ideas and more rapidly
discard ideas that don't work and refine ideas with promise. Occam's
Razor is more of a _practical_ principle than some kind of moral
statement about the preference for simplicity. So, back again to Jen's
point about JKR--we can often take what we read in the books at face
value, but there IS often more going on.

Back to Percy: Occam's Razor would incline us to accept the simplest
answer: Percy is a humongous pile of rat droppings. However, I would
say that we need to discard the simple answer and look more closely
because of all the evidence of 'Percy's' odd behaviour. In OotP, we
have a lot more words attributed to Percy in the letter than we do in
all the rest of the text, and that is a WIERD letter.

I don't know if I totally buy the whole theory put forth here by SMJ,
but I am firmly convinced that we will learn that there's more to Percy
than there appears. That letter is supposed to convey hidden
meanings--I just don't know if anyone's worked them all out right yet.
(I personsally find the 'spy' idea rather plausible, but I think
there's a lot of merit in some of the 'impersonator' interpretations.

I'll also just add one more twist to the "stigma of association with
such people" line. A "stigma" is indeed a mark (or scar or brand), but
this made me think not of Harry's scar, but that nasty association of
people who do bear a certain mark.

Peace, and puzzles-
-Rijl

[Toon]

Post by Rijl Kent
That's a good point about Occam's Razor and JKR--also keep in mind that
the simplest answer is the best not because there's any way to know _a
priori_ the complexity in any given case, but IF you assume the answer
is simplest THEN you can more easily test your ideas and more rapidly
discard ideas that don't work and refine ideas with promise. Occam's
Razor is more of a _practical_ principle than some kind of moral
statement about the preference for simplicity. So, back again to Jen's
point about JKR--we can often take what we read in the books at face
value, but there IS often more going on.

The simplest answer isn't always the ebst. Occam's Razor says the
most likely, or usually, etc. Meaning, the simplest answer is not
always right, but 9 time sout of 10, it's the one to concentrate on.
If the simplest answer is percy's a power mad git, then yes, apply it.
if the simpelst answer is Snape's a reverse vampire who needs to get
isnide before the suns ets, then no, mov eon to soemhtign a tad mroe
complciated.

Post by Rijl Kent
I'll also just add one more twist to the "stigma of association with
such people" line. A "stigma" is indeed a mark (or scar or brand), but
this made me think not of Harry's scar, but that nasty association of
people who do bear a certain mark.
Peace, and puzzles-
-Rijl

Like a Dark Mark. Stigma isn't just physical. Think playground
mentality. if you hang with a loser, you are a loser. If Percy hangs
out with Dumbledore supporters, he's branded a DD booster as well.

[Rijl Kent]

Post by Toon

Post by Rijl Kent
That's a good point about Occam's Razor and JKR--also keep in mind that
the simplest answer is the best not because there's any way to know _a
priori_ the complexity in any given case, but IF you assume the answer
is simplest THEN you can more easily test your ideas and more

rapidly

Post by Toon

Post by Rijl Kent
discard ideas that don't work and refine ideas with promise.

Occam's

Post by Toon

Post by Rijl Kent
Razor is more of a _practical_ principle than some kind of moral
statement about the preference for simplicity. So, back again to Jen's
point about JKR--we can often take what we read in the books at face
value, but there IS often more going on.

The simplest answer isn't always the ebst. Occam's Razor says the
most likely, or usually, etc. Meaning, the simplest answer is not
always right, but 9 time sout of 10, it's the one to concentrate on.
If the simplest answer is percy's a power mad git, then yes, apply it.
if the simpelst answer is Snape's a reverse vampire who needs to get
isnide before the suns ets, then no, mov eon to soemhtign a tad mroe
complciated.

Post by Rijl Kent
I'll also just add one more twist to the "stigma of association with
such people" line. A "stigma" is indeed a mark (or scar or brand), but
this made me think not of Harry's scar, but that nasty association of
people who do bear a certain mark.
Peace, and puzzles-
-Rijl

Like a Dark Mark. Stigma isn't just physical. Think playground
mentality. if you hang with a loser, you are a loser. If Percy hangs
out with Dumbledore supporters, he's branded a DD booster as well.

Um... I'm not sure if you're repeating my points for emphasis, or
because you didn't get it--the more common interpretation of stigma is
now NOT the physical mark--I was offering one way to read between the
lines of Percy's letter.

Peace and understanding-
-Rijl

[Troels Forchhammer]

In message <news:tvednXSjIuULL3vcRVn-***@rogers.com> "Jen"
<***@rogers.com.REMOVE ME> enriched us with:
<snip>

Post by Jen
Occam's Razor states the simplest answer is probably the right
one.

More or less, though not quite.

The original phrasing of Ockham's Razor is a bunch of Latin mumble-
jumble (much like a Potterverse magic spell <G>), but the essence is
that one should strive to avoid unnecessary complications.

The effect of that is that of two proposals that are otherwise equal,
one should prefer the simplest one.

The bits about 'unnecessary complications' and 'otherwise equal' are
very important.

The main problem about Ockham's Razor when it comes to applying it to
such propositions as we are used to discuss here is that there is no
consensus about how to define 'unnecessary complications', 'otherwise
equal' or even 'simple'. Without a consensus about these concepts, it
is impossible to apply Ockham's Razor in a meaningful way.

Post by Jen
However, JKR has proven that his isn't always the case,
because if it were, Snape would have been the one after the
Philosopher's stone, Malfoy would be the heir of Slytherin, etc

That illustrates the point I made above very well ;-)

For me it is essential to distinguish between intra-book plot elements
(who tries to steal the Philosopher's Stone) and inter-book plot
elements (did Lily know what she was doing). While we know that there
are usually some attempts to mislead us within the individual books, it
is not clear that the same is the case between the books. I can't at a
moment's notice recall any important red herrings that have been
allowed to stand unrefuted at the end of a book (though someone will
probably come up with a number of examples).

But even if that is not the case, I would still cleave to the Razor --
it doesn't make any guarantees, even as you phrased it, it only states
what one ought to believe, what will be most likely to be true, not
what /is/ true.

Post by Jen
etc etc. I'm not saying that Ron is Snape, but there are many
other possibilities we haven't considered.

And that is of course another weakness -- an error that is quite common
is to set up only two contending propositions, use Ockham's Razor to
choose between them (for which it is well suited), and then accept the
'winning' proposition as true, when all one has done is to demonstrate
(for some value of 'demonstrate') that this proposition is the more
likely /of the two/!

It's like Holmes' famous statement about having eliminated all other
possibilities -- when can we be sure that we have actually done that?

Similarly with a tool that can only decide which of two contending
propositions is the most likely -- it says nothing about how they
relate to an infinity of other propositions.

[gjw]

On 14 Jan 2005 22:18:06 GMT, Troels Forchhammer

Post by gjw
<snip>

Post by Jen
Occam's Razor states the simplest answer is probably the right
one.

More or less, though not quite.
The original phrasing of Ockham's Razor is a bunch of Latin mumble-
jumble (much like a Potterverse magic spell <G>), but the essence is
that one should strive to avoid unnecessary complications.
The effect of that is that of two proposals that are otherwise equal,
one should prefer the simplest one.

I can think of quite a few instances where that approach would have
backfired.

"Is the world flat or round?" for instance. In the old days, the
simple answer would appear to be flat (it avoids nasty complications
such as "why don't we fall off?" and "how can people stand upside down
on the other side of the world?").

Or "What are stars?". The simple answer would seem to be something
like "small points of light circling the earth", rather than gigantic
suns billions of miles away.

Or how about "What causes disease?" A simple answer would look for an
exterior cause, such as something the person ate, or perhaps some sort
of unwise behavior on the victim's part - rather than the notion that
tiny invisible animals are running rampant in our blood, causing
havoc.

Unfortunately, the correct answer isn't always the simplest answer.

Post by gjw
For me it is essential to distinguish between intra-book plot elements
(who tries to steal the Philosopher's Stone) and inter-book plot
elements (did Lily know what she was doing). While we know that there
are usually some attempts to mislead us within the individual books, it
is not clear that the same is the case between the books. I can't at a
moment's notice recall any important red herrings that have been
allowed to stand unrefuted at the end of a book (though someone will
probably come up with a number of examples).

Not off the top of my head. Wormtail/Scabbers qualifies as a
multi-book deception, but I don't know if I'd call it a red herring.

But I suspect that she is saving those big surprises for the series
finale (book 7), just as she saves up the surprises in the individual
books until the finales of those books.

From what she said about people not having guessed her main secret, it
seems that she's sitting on at least one whopper of a series-long red
herring. (And I suspect she has quite a few more surprises tucked away
about Lily, Petunia, Snape, Harry's scar, etc.)

[Troels Forchhammer]

Post by gjw
On 14 Jan 2005 22:18:06 GMT, Troels Forchhammer

<snip>

[Ockham's Razor]

Post by gjw

Post by Troels Forchhammer
The effect of that is that of two proposals that are otherwise
equal, one should prefer the simplest one.

I can think of quite a few instances where that approach would
have backfired.
"Is the world flat or round?" for instance. In the old days, the
simple answer would appear to be flat

Actually it has been a known fact for more than 2500 years that the
world is round, whether the commoners knew or not.

But the examples illustrates another aspect -- that we can only make
the assessment based on the currently available data, and that further
data may change the situation completely.

Post by gjw
Or "What are stars?". The simple answer would seem to be something
like "small points of light circling the earth", rather than
gigantic suns billions of miles away.

That reminds me of Tycho Brahe, who rejected the motion of the Earth
because he couldn't measure the parallax to the stars (the difference
in angle to a particular star from summer to winter). He calculated
that for his instruments to be unable to detect the parallax, the stars
would have to be at least a thousand times further away than the Sun,
and God would not have been that wasteful with space in the Universe,
he argued.

Yes, of course there are cases, many cases, where the explanation that
was at one point thought to be the simplest one turned out to be false
when further data became available. This doesn't affect the Razor,
though, since it doesn't state that the simplest explanation will be
true -- only that the simplest explanation (that explains all the
facts) should be preferred.

<snip>

[Tom A.]

Post by gjw

Post by gjw
On 14 Jan 2005 22:18:06 GMT, Troels Forchhammer

<snip>
[Ockham's Razor]

Post by gjw

Post by Troels Forchhammer
The effect of that is that of two proposals that are otherwise
equal, one should prefer the simplest one.

I can think of quite a few instances where that approach would
have backfired.
"Is the world flat or round?" for instance. In the old days, the
simple answer would appear to be flat

Actually it has been a known fact for more than 2500 years that the
world is round, whether the commoners knew or not.
But the examples illustrates another aspect -- that we can only make
the assessment based on the currently available data, and that further
data may change the situation completely.

Post by gjw
Or "What are stars?". The simple answer would seem to be something
like "small points of light circling the earth", rather than
gigantic suns billions of miles away.

That reminds me of Tycho Brahe, who rejected the motion of the Earth
because he couldn't measure the parallax to the stars (the difference
in angle to a particular star from summer to winter). He calculated
that for his instruments to be unable to detect the parallax, the stars
would have to be at least a thousand times further away than the Sun,
and God would not have been that wasteful with space in the Universe,
he argued.
Yes, of course there are cases, many cases, where the explanation that
was at one point thought to be the simplest one turned out to be false
when further data became available. This doesn't affect the Razor,
though, since it doesn't state that the simplest explanation will be
true -- only that the simplest explanation (that explains all the
facts) should be preferred.
<snip>

Another way it's sometimes stated is that invisible forces (or
assumptions) shouldn't be multiplied.

Getting this back to Percy, given the current data, it seems to me that
him being a jerk seems to require the fewest assumptions.

Him being an active (but secret) supporter of Voldy, or a secret spy for
the good side, requires more assumptions. However, not many, and nothing

Someone pretending to be Percy, while Percy's being held prisioner, and
sending the note in OotP takes a whole bunch of assumptions to make it
work. Way too many (IMO) to be considered seriously.

Tom A.
Latest time travel theory: Hedwig goes back in time and becomes Crookshanks

[Toon]

On 14 Jan 2005 22:18:06 GMT, Troels Forchhammer

Post by Troels Forchhammer
For me it is essential to distinguish between intra-book plot elements
(who tries to steal the Philosopher's Stone) and inter-book plot
elements (did Lily know what she was doing). While we know that there
are usually some attempts to mislead us within the individual books, it
is not clear that the same is the case between the books. I can't at a
moment's notice recall any important red herrings that have been
allowed to stand unrefuted at the end of a book (though someone will
probably come up with a number of examples).

Scabbers is a rat. We thought him but a mere rat for 2.75 books.

[Troels Forchhammer]

In message <news:***@4ax.com> Toon
<***@toon.com> enriched us with:
<snip>

Post by Toon
Scabbers is a rat. We thought him but a mere rat for 2.75 books.

Though not what I would call a red herring, it is an example of a place
where Ockham's Razor wouldn't have worked across books, yes.

[Louis Epstein]

Post by Tom A.

Post by gjw

Post by SMJ
It's not very often that I pay attention to theories, but I saw this post
by SuperWizard624 on CoSForums.com and have to share it!
It's the most brilliant theory I've ever read. :-)
Warning: I didn't come up with this theory, but I would definitely like to
see it discussed in this newsgroup.

<snip>
Sorry, for me it's right up there with the "Ron is Dumbledore" theory.

I like the Ron is Snape theory, myself.

I can't believe that Ron is Dumbledore OR Snape.

However,did you see my posting back in August suggesting
(theoretically,since I don't believe it either)
that Dumbledore is Snape?

-=-=-
The World Trade Center towers MUST rise again,
at least as tall as before...or terror has triumphed.

[Tom A.]

Post by Louis Epstein

Post by Tom A.

Post by gjw

Post by SMJ
It's not very often that I pay attention to theories, but I saw this post
by SuperWizard624 on CoSForums.com and have to share it!
It's the most brilliant theory I've ever read. :-)
Warning: I didn't come up with this theory, but I would definitely like to
see it discussed in this newsgroup.

<snip>
Sorry, for me it's right up there with the "Ron is Dumbledore" theory.

I like the Ron is Snape theory, myself.

I can't believe that Ron is Dumbledore OR Snape.

I don't, either. But if Ron did go back in time, he might be quite mad
at Harry for being his sidekick (especially if Harry and Hermione get
together in the end). And while he wouldn't want to _hurt_ Harry, he
might want to be mean to him.

"I don't believe a word of it." - Ford Prefect.

Post by Louis Epstein
However,did you see my posting back in August suggesting
(theoretically,since I don't believe it either)
that Dumbledore is Snape?

No, missed it. Is that his way of letting his dark side out?

[Louis Epstein]

Post by Tom A.

Post by Louis Epstein

Post by Tom A.

Post by gjw

Post by SMJ
It's not very often that I pay attention to theories, but I saw this post
by SuperWizard624 on CoSForums.com and have to share it!
It's the most brilliant theory I've ever read. :-)
Warning: I didn't come up with this theory, but I would definitely like
to see it discussed in this newsgroup.

<snip>
Sorry, for me it's right up there with the "Ron is Dumbledore" theory.

I like the Ron is Snape theory, myself.

I can't believe that Ron is Dumbledore OR Snape.

I don't, either. But if Ron did go back in time, he might be quite mad
at Harry for being his sidekick (especially if Harry and Hermione get
together in the end). And while he wouldn't want to _hurt_ Harry, he
might want to be mean to him.
"I don't believe a word of it." - Ford Prefect.

Post by Louis Epstein
However,did you see my posting back in August suggesting
(theoretically,since I don't believe it either)
that Dumbledore is Snape?

No, missed it. Is that his way of letting his dark side out?

It's the reason why Dumbledore trusts Snape,since he knew
he would turn out OK in the end.

-=-=-
The World Trade Center towers MUST rise again,
at least as tall as before...or terror has triumphed.

[Troels Forchhammer]

Post by gjw

Post by SMJ
It's not very often that I pay attention to theories, but I saw this
post by SuperWizard624 on CoSForums.com and have to share it!
It's the most brilliant theory I've ever read. :-)

Sorry, for me it's right up there with the "Ron is Dumbledore" theory.

"Down there" might be more appropriate :-/

'Wishful thinking' and 'fan-fiction' are probably the descriptions I
should stick to lest I stray into the realm of the offensive. I can only
congratulate the author on their capability for reinterpretation and
independent (complete and utter) story-writing -- the process seems to
have included a bit of reinvention of the English language, but that is
going on all the time anyway, so we probably shouldn't get all worked up
about that.

[Quentin Stephens]

Post by SMJ
It's not very often that I pay attention to theories, but I saw
this post by SuperWizard624 on CoSForums.com and have to share
it!

Over a year ago in a fanfic, I read something like this. It didn't
suggest the Percy/Pettigrew angle, though.